Scenario-Based Messages on Social Media Motivate COVID-19 Information Seeking.

Communicating information about health risks empowers individuals to make informed decisions. To identify effective communication strategies, we manipulated the specificity, self-relevance, and emotional framing of messages designed to motivate information seeking about COVID-19 exposure risk. In Study 1 (N=221,829), we conducted a large-scale social media field study. Using Facebook advertisements, we targeted users by age and political attitudes. Episodic specificity drove engagement: Advertisements that contextualized risk in specific scenarios produced the highest click-through rates, across all demographic groups. In Study 2, we replicated and extended our findings in an online experiment (N=4,233). Message specificity (but not self-relevance or emotional valence) drove interest in learning about COVID-19 risks. Across both studies, we found that older adults and liberals were more interested in learning about COVID-19 risks. However, message specificity increased engagement across demographic groups. Overall, evoking specific scenarios motivated information seeking about COVID-19, facilitating risk communication to a broad audience.

Emergence and maintenance of stable coexistence during a long-term multicellular evolution experiment.

The evolution of multicellular life spurred evolutionary radiations, fundamentally changing many of Earth's ecosystems. Yet little is known about how early steps in the evolution of multicellularity affect eco-evolutionary dynamics. Through long-term experimental evolution, we observed niche partitioning and the adaptive divergence of two specialized lineages from a single multicellular ancestor. Over 715 daily transfers, snowflake yeast were subjected to selection for rapid growth, followed by selection favouring larger group size. Small and large cluster-forming lineages evolved from a monomorphic ancestor, coexisting for over ~4,300 generations, specializing on divergent aspects of a trade-off between growth rate and survival. Through modelling and experimentation, we demonstrate that coexistence is maintained by a trade-off between organismal size and competitiveness for dissolved oxygen. Taken together, this work shows how the evolution of a new level of biological individuality can rapidly drive adaptive diversification and the expansion of a nascent multicellular niche, one of the most historically impactful emergent properties of this evolutionary transition.

Design, optimization, and inference of multiphasic decay of infectious virus particles.

The loss of virus particles is typically considered to arise from a first-order kinetic process. Signals of deviations from this exponential decay are often de-prioritized. Here, we propose methods to evaluate if a design is adequate to evaluate evidence for multiphasic virus particle decay and to optimize the sampling times of decay experiments, accounting for uncertainties in viral kinetics. First, we evaluate 1500 synthetic scenarios of biphasic decays, with varying decay rates and initial proportions of subpopulations. Robust inference of multiphasic decay is more likely when the faster decaying subpopulation predominates insofar as early samples are taken to resolve the faster decay rate. Overall, we find that design optimization leads to a better precision of estimation while reducing the number of samples. It helps to estimate adequately the fastest decay in 54% of situations vs. 41% using a non-optimized design. We then apply these methods to infer multiple decay rates associated with the decay of ΦD9, an evolved isolate derived from phage Φ21. A pilot experiment confirmed that ΦD9 decay is multiphasic, but was unable to resolve the rate or proportion of the fast decay subpopulation(s). We then applied optimal design methods to propose new ΦD9 sampling times. Using this strategy, we were able to robustly estimate both decay rates and their respective subpopulations. Notably, we conclude that the vast majority (94%) of the population decays at a rate 16-fold higher than a slow decaying population. Altogether, these results provide methods to quantitatively estimate heterogeneity in viral decay.

Disentangling top-down drivers of mortality underlying diel population dynamics of Prochlorococcus in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre.

Photosynthesis fuels primary production at the base of marine food webs. Yet, in many surface ocean ecosystems, diel-driven primary production is tightly coupled to daily loss. This tight coupling raises the question: which top-down drivers predominate in maintaining persistently stable picocyanobacterial populations over longer time scales? Motivated by high-frequency surface water measurements taken in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG), we developed multitrophic models to investigate bottom-up and top-down mechanisms underlying the balanced control of Prochlorococcus populations. We find that incorporating photosynthetic growth with viral- and predator-induced mortality is sufficient to recapitulate daily oscillations of Prochlorococcus abundances with baseline community abundances. In doing so, we infer that grazers in this environment function as the predominant top-down factor despite high standing viral particle densities. The model-data fits also reveal the ecological relevance of light-dependent viral traits and non-canonical factors to cellular loss. Finally, we leverage sensitivity analyses to demonstrate how variation in life history traits across distinct oceanic contexts, including variation in viral adsorption and grazer clearance rates, can transform the quantitative and even qualitative importance of top-down controls in shaping Prochlorococcus population dynamics.

Metapopulation model of phage therapy of an acute Pseudomonas aeruginosa lung infection.

Infections caused by multi-drug resistant (MDR) pathogenic bacteria are a global health threat. Phage therapy, which uses phage to kill bacterial pathogens, is increasingly used to treat patients infected by MDR bacteria. However, the therapeutic outcome of phage therapy may be limited by the emergence of phage resistance during treatment and/or by physical constraints that impede phage-bacteria interactions in vivo. In this work, we evaluate the role of lung spatial structure on the efficacy of phage therapy for Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection. To do so, we developed a spatially structured metapopulation network model based on the geometry of the bronchial tree, and included the emergence of phage-resistant bacterial mutants and host innate immune responses. We model the ecological interactions between bacteria, phage, and the host innate immune system at the airway (node) level. The model predicts the synergistic elimination of a P. aeruginosa infection due to the combined effects of phage and neutrophils given sufficiently active immune states and suitable phage life history traits. Moreover, the metapopulation model simulations predict that local MDR pathogens are cleared faster at distal nodes of the bronchial tree. Notably, image analysis of lung tissue time series from wild-type and lymphocyte-depleted mice (n=13) revealed a concordant, statistically significant pattern: infection intensity cleared in the bottom before the top of the lungs. Overall, the combined use of simulations and image analysis of in vivo experiments further supports the use of phage therapy for treating acute lung infections caused by P. aeruginosa while highlighting potential limits to therapy given a spatially structured environment, such as impaired innate immune responses and low phage efficacy.

Macrophage-induced reduction of bacteriophage density limits the efficacy of in vivo pulmonary phage therapy.

The rise of antimicrobial resistance has led to renewed interest in evaluating phage therapy. In murine models highly effective treatment of acute pneumonia caused by Pseudomonas aeruginosa relies on the synergistic antibacterial activity of bacteriophages with neutrophils. Here, we show that depletion of alveolar macrophages (AM) shortens the survival of mice without boosting the P. aeruginosa load in the lungs. Unexpectedly, upon bacteriophage treatment, pulmonary levels of P. aeruginosa were significantly lower in AM-depleted than in immunocompetent mice. To explore potential mechanisms underlying the benefit of AM-depletion in treated mice, we developed a mathematical model. Integration of model simulations suggest that AM reduce bacteriophage density in the lungs. We experimentally confirmed that the in vivo decay of phage is faster in immunocompetent compared to AM-depleted animals. These findings demonstrate the involvement of feedback between bacteriophage, bacteria, and the immune system in shaping the outcomes of phage therapy in clinical settings.

Inferring strain-level mutational drivers of phage-bacteria interaction phenotypes.

The enormous diversity of bacteriophages and their bacterial hosts presents a significant challenge to predict which phages infect a focal set of bacteria. Infection is largely determined by complementary -and largely uncharacterized- genetics of adsorption, injection, and cell take-over. Here we present a machine learning (ML) approach to predict phage-bacteria interactions trained on genome sequences of and phenotypic interactions amongst 51 Escherichia coli strains and 45 phage λ strains that coevolved in laboratory conditions for 37 days. Leveraging multiple inference strategies and without a priori knowledge of driver mutations, this framework predicts both who infects whom and the quantitative levels of infections across a suite of 2,295 potential interactions. The most effective ML approach inferred interaction phenotypes from independent contributions from phage and bacteria mutations, predicting phage host range with 86% mean classification accuracy while reducing the relative error in the estimated strength of the infection phenotype by 40%. Further, transparent feature selection in the predictive model revealed 18 of 176 phage λ and 6 of 18 E. coli mutations that have a significant influence on the outcome of phage-bacteria interactions, corroborating sites previously known to affect phage λ infections, as well as identifying mutations in genes of unknown function not previously shown to influence bacterial resistance. While the genetic variation studied was limited to a focal, coevolved phage-bacteria system, the method's success at recapitulating strain-level infection outcomes provides a path forward towards developing strategies for inferring interactions in non-model systems, including those of therapeutic significance.

Rapid bacteria-phage coevolution drives the emergence of multiscale networks.

Interactions between species catalyze the evolution of multiscale ecological networks, including both nested and modular elements that regulate the function of diverse communities. One common assumption is that such complex pattern formation requires spatial isolation or long evolutionary timescales. We show that multiscale network structure can evolve rapidly under simple ecological conditions without spatial structure. In just 21 days of laboratory coevolution, Escherichia coli and bacteriophage Φ21 coevolve and diversify to form elaborate cross-infection networks. By measuring ~10,000 phage-bacteria infections and testing the genetic basis of interactions, we identify the mechanisms that create each component of the multiscale pattern. Our results demonstrate how multiscale networks evolve in parasite-host systems, illustrating Darwin's idea that simple adaptive processes can generate entangled banks of ecological interactions.

Communicating COVID-19 exposure risk with an interactive website counteracts risk misestimation.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, individuals depended on risk information to make decisions about everyday behaviors and public policy. Here, we assessed whether an interactive website influenced individuals' risk tolerance to support public health goals. We collected data from 11,169 unique users who engaged with the online COVID-19 Event Risk Tool (https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/) between 9/22/21 and 1/22/22. The website featured interactive elements, including a dynamic risk map, survey questions, and a risk quiz with accuracy feedback. After learning about the risk of COVID-19 exposure, participants reported being less willing to participate in events that could spread COVID-19, especially for high-risk large events. We also uncovered a bias in risk estimation: Participants tended to overestimate the risk of small events but underestimate the risk of large events. Importantly, even participants who voluntarily sought information about COVID risks tended to misestimate exposure risk, demonstrating the need for intervention. Participants from liberal-leaning counties were more likely to use the website tools and more responsive to feedback about risk misestimation, indicating that political partisanship influences how individuals seek and engage with COVID-19 information. Lastly, we explored temporal dynamics and found that user engagement and risk estimation fluctuated over the course of the Omicron variant outbreak. Overall, we report an effective large-scale method for communicating viral exposure risk; our findings are relevant to broader research on risk communication, epidemiological modeling, and risky decision-making.

Metacommunity structure preserves genome diversity in the presence of gene-specific selective sweeps under moderate rates of horizontal gene transfer.

The horizontal transfer of genes is fundamental for the eco-evolutionary dynamics of microbial communities, such as oceanic plankton, soil, and the human microbiome. In the case of an acquired beneficial gene, classic population genetics would predict a genome-wide selective sweep, whereby the genome spreads clonally within the community and together with the beneficial gene, removing genome diversity. Instead, several sources of metagenomic data show the existence of "gene-specific sweeps", whereby a beneficial gene spreads across a bacterial community, maintaining genome diversity. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this process, including the decreasing gene flow between ecologically distant populations, frequency-dependent selection from linked deleterious allelles, and very high rates of horizontal gene transfer. Here, we propose an additional possible scenario grounded in eco-evolutionary principles. Specifically, we show by a mathematical model and simulations that a metacommunity where species can occupy multiple patches, acting together with a realistic (moderate) HGT rate, helps maintain genome diversity. Assuming a scenario of patches dominated by single species, our model predicts that diversity only decreases moderately upon the arrival of a new beneficial gene, and that losses in diversity can be quickly restored. We explore the generic behaviour of diversity as a function of three key parameters, frequency of insertion of new beneficial genes, migration rates and horizontal transfer rates.Our results provides a testable explanation for how diversity can be maintained by gene-specific sweeps even in the absence of high horizontal gene transfer rates.

Bacteria-phage coevolution with a seed bank.

Dormancy is an adaptation to living in fluctuating environments. It allows individuals to enter a reversible state of reduced metabolic activity when challenged by unfavorable conditions. Dormancy can also influence species interactions by providing organisms with a refuge from predators and parasites. Here we test the hypothesis that, by generating a seed bank of protected individuals, dormancy can modify the patterns and processes of antagonistic coevolution. We conducted a factorially designed experiment where we passaged a bacterial host (Bacillus subtilis) and its phage (SPO1) in the presence versus absence of a seed bank consisting of dormant endospores. Owing in part to the inability of phages to attach to spores, seed banks stabilized population dynamics and resulted in minimum host densities that were 30-fold higher compared to bacteria that were unable to engage in dormancy. By supplying a refuge to phage-sensitive strains, we show that seed banks retained phenotypic diversity that was otherwise lost to selection. Dormancy also stored genetic diversity. After characterizing allelic variation with pooled population sequencing, we found that seed banks retained twice as many host genes with mutations, whether phages were present or not. Based on mutational trajectories over the course of the experiment, we demonstrate that seed banks can dampen bacteria-phage coevolution. Not only does dormancy create structure and memory that buffers populations against environmental fluctuations, it also modifies species interactions in ways that can feed back onto the eco-evolutionary dynamics of microbial communities.

Attitudes towards booster, testing and isolation, and their impact on COVID-19 response in winter 2022/2023 in France, Belgium, and Italy: a cross-sectional survey and modelling study.

Background: European countries are focusing on testing, isolation, and boosting strategies to counter the 2022/2023 winter surge due to SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants. However, widespread pandemic fatigue and limited compliance potentially undermine mitigation efforts. Methods: To establish a baseline for interventions, we ran a multicountry survey to assess respondents' willingness to receive booster vaccination and comply with testing and isolation mandates. Integrating survey and estimated immunity data in a branching process epidemic spreading model, we evaluated the effectiveness and costs of current protocols in France, Belgium, and Italy to manage the winter wave. Findings: The vast majority of survey participants (N = 4594) was willing to adhere to testing (>91%) and rapid isolation (>88%) across the three countries. Pronounced differences emerged in the declared senior adherence to booster vaccination (73% in France, 94% in Belgium, 86% in Italy). Epidemic model results estimate that testing and isolation protocols would confer significant benefit in reducing transmission (17-24% reduction, from R = 1.6 to R = 1.3 in France and Belgium, to R = 1.2 in Italy) with declared adherence. Achieving a mitigating level similar to the French protocol, the Belgian protocol would require 35% fewer tests (from 1 test to 0.65 test per infected person) and avoid the long isolation periods of the Italian protocol (average of 6 days vs. 11). A cost barrier to test would significantly decrease adherence in France and Belgium, undermining protocols' effectiveness. Interpretation: Simpler mandates for isolation may increase awareness and actual compliance, reducing testing costs, without compromising mitigation. High booster vaccination uptake remains key for the control of the winter wave. Funding: The European Commission, ANRS-Maladies Infectieuses Émergentes, the Agence Nationale de la Recherche, the Chaires Blaise Pascal Program of the Île-de-France region.

Inferring the differences in incubation-period and generation-interval distributions of the Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2.

Estimating the differences in the incubation-period, serial-interval, and generation-interval distributions of SARS-CoV-2 variants is critical to understanding their transmission. However, the impact of epidemic dynamics is often neglected in estimating the timing of infection-for example, when an epidemic is growing exponentially, a cohort of infected individuals who developed symptoms at the same time are more likely to have been infected recently. Here, we reanalyze incubation-period and serial-interval data describing transmissions of the Delta and Omicron variants from the Netherlands at the end of December 2021. Previous analysis of the same dataset reported shorter mean observed incubation period (3.2 d vs. 4.4 d) and serial interval (3.5 d vs. 4.1 d) for the Omicron variant, but the number of infections caused by the Delta variant decreased during this period as the number of Omicron infections increased. When we account for growth-rate differences of two variants during the study period, we estimate similar mean incubation periods (3.8 to 4.5 d) for both variants but a shorter mean generation interval for the Omicron variant (3.0 d; 95% CI: 2.7 to 3.2 d) than for the Delta variant (3.8 d; 95% CI: 3.7 to 4.0 d). The differences in estimated generation intervals may be driven by the "network effect"-higher effective transmissibility of the Omicron variant can cause faster susceptible depletion among contact networks, which in turn prevents late transmission (therefore shortening realized generation intervals). Using up-to-date generation-interval distributions is critical to accurately estimating the reproduction advantage of the Omicron variant.

Intermediate levels of asymptomatic transmission can lead to the highest epidemic fatalities.

Asymptomatic infections have hampered the ability to characterize and prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 throughout the pandemic. Although asymptomatic infections reduce severity at the individual level, they can make population-level outcomes worse if asymptomatic individuals-unaware they are infected-transmit more than symptomatic individuals. Using an epidemic model, we show that intermediate levels of asymptomatic infection lead to the highest levels of epidemic fatalities when the decrease in symptomatic transmission, due either to individual behavior or mitigation efforts, is strong. We generalize this result to include presymptomatic transmission, showing that intermediate levels of nonsymptomatic transmission lead to the highest levels of fatalities. Finally, we extend our framework to illustrate how the intersection of asymptomatic spread and immunity profiles determine epidemic trajectories, including population-level severity, of future variants. In particular, when immunity provides protection against symptoms, but not against infections or deaths, epidemic trajectories can have faster growth rates and higher peaks, leading to more total deaths. Conversely, even modest levels of protection against infection can mitigate the population-level effects of asymptomatic spread.

Microbial and Viral Genome and Proteome Nitrogen Demand Varies across Multiple Spatial Scales within a Marine Oxygen Minimum Zone.

Nutrient availability can significantly influence microbial genomic and proteomic streamlining, for example, by selecting for lower nitrogen to carbon ratios. Oligotrophic open ocean microbes have streamlined genomic nitrogen requirements relative to those of their counterparts in nutrient-rich coastal waters. However, steep gradients in nutrient availability occur at meter-level, and even micron-level, spatial scales. It is unclear whether such gradients also structure genomic and proteomic stoichiometry. Focusing on the eastern tropical North Pacific oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), we use comparative metagenomics to examine how nitrogen availability shapes microbial and viral genome properties along the vertical gradient across the OMZ and between two size fractions, distinguishing free-living microbes versus particle-associated microbes. We find a substantial increase in the nitrogen content of encoded proteins in particle-associated over free-living bacteria and archaea across nitrogen availability regimes over depth. Within each size fraction, we find that bacterial and viral genomic nitrogen tends to increase with increasing nitrate concentrations with depth. In contrast to cellular genes, the nitrogen content of virus proteins does not differ between size fractions. We identified arginine as a key amino acid in the modulation of the C:N ratios of core genes for bacteria, archaea, and viruses. Functional analysis reveals that particle-associated bacterial metagenomes are enriched for genes that are involved in arginine metabolism and organic nitrogen compound catabolism. Our results are consistent with nitrogen streamlining in both cellular and viral genomes on spatial scales of meters to microns. These effects are similar in magnitude to those previously reported across scales of thousands of kilometers. IMPORTANCE The genomes of marine microbes can be shaped by nutrient cycles, with ocean-scale gradients in nitrogen availability being known to influence microbial amino acid usage. It is unclear, however, how genomic properties are shaped by nutrient changes over much smaller spatial scales, for example, along the vertical transition into oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) or from the exterior to the interior of detrital particles. Here, we measure protein nitrogen usage by marine bacteria, archaea, and viruses by using metagenomes from the nitracline of the eastern tropical North Pacific OMZ, including both particle-associated and nonassociated biomass. Our results show higher genomic and proteomic nitrogen content in particle-associated microbes and at depths with higher nitrogen availability for cellular and viral genomes. This discovery suggests that stoichiometry influences microbial and viral evolution across multiple scales, including the micrometer to millimeter scale associated with particle-associated versus free-living lifestyles.

Epidemic modeling with heterogeneity and social diffusion.

We propose and analyze a family of epidemiological models that extend the classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered/Removed (SIR)-like framework to account for dynamic heterogeneity in infection risk. The family of models takes the form of a system of reaction-diffusion equations given populations structured by heterogeneous susceptibility to infection. These models describe the evolution of population-level macroscopic quantities S, I, R as in the classical case coupled with a microscopic variable f, giving the distribution of individual behavior in terms of exposure to contagion in the population of susceptibles. The reaction terms represent the impact of sculpting the distribution of susceptibles by the infection process. The diffusion and drift terms that appear in a Fokker-Planck type equation represent the impact of behavior change both during and in the absence of an epidemic. We first study the mathematical foundations of this system of reaction-diffusion equations and prove a number of its properties. In particular, we show that the system will converge back to the unique equilibrium distribution after an epidemic outbreak. We then derive a simpler system by seeking self-similar solutions to the reaction-diffusion equations in the case of Gaussian profiles. Notably, these self-similar solutions lead to a system of ordinary differential equations including classic SIR-like compartments and a new feature: the average risk level in the remaining susceptible population. We show that the simplified system exhibits a rich dynamical structure during epidemics, including plateaus, shoulders, rebounds and oscillations. Finally, we offer perspectives and caveats on ways that this family of models can help interpret the non-canonical dynamics of emerging infectious diseases, including COVID-19.

The dynamic interplay of bacteriophage, bacteria and the mammalian host during phage therapy.

For decades, biomedically centered studies of bacteria have focused on mechanistic drivers of disease in their mammalian hosts. Likewise, molecular studies of bacteriophage have centered on understanding mechanisms by which bacteriophage exploit the intracellular environment of their bacterial hosts. These binary interactions - bacteriophage infect bacteria and bacteria infect eukaryotic hosts - have remained largely separate lines of inquiry. However, recent evidence demonstrates how tripartite interactions between bacteriophage, bacteria and the eukaryotic host shape the dynamics and fate of each component. In this perspective, we provide an overview of different ways in which bacteriophage ecology modulates bacterial infections along a spectrum of positive to negative impacts on a mammalian host. We also examine how coevolutionary processes over longer timescales may change the valence of these interactions. We argue that anticipating both ecological and evolutionary dynamics is key to understand and control tripartite interactions and ultimately to the success or failure of phage therapy.

How time-scale differences in asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission shape SARS-CoV-2 outbreak dynamics.

Asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections can have different characteristic time scales of transmission. These time-scale differences can shape outbreak dynamics as well as bias population-level estimates of epidemic strength, speed, and controllability. For example, prior work focusing on the initial exponential growth phase of an outbreak found that larger time scales for asymptomatic vs. symptomatic transmission can lead to under-estimates of the basic reproduction number as inferred from epidemic case data. Building upon this work, we use a series of nonlinear epidemic models to explore how differences in asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission time scales can lead to changes in the realized proportion of asymptomatic transmission throughout an epidemic. First, we find that when asymptomatic transmission time scales are longer than symptomatic transmission time scales, then the effective proportion of asymptomatic transmission increases as total incidence decreases. Moreover, these time-scale-driven impacts on epidemic dynamics are enhanced when infection status is correlated between infector and infectee pairs (e.g., due to dose-dependent impacts on symptoms). Next we apply these findings to understand the impact of time-scale differences on populations with age-dependent assortative mixing and in which the probability of having a symptomatic infection increases with age. We show that if asymptomatic generation intervals are longer than corresponding symptomatic generation intervals, then correlations between age and symptoms lead to a decrease in the age of infection during periods of epidemic decline (whether due to susceptible depletion or intervention). Altogether, these results demonstrate the need to explore the role of time-scale differences in transmission dynamics alongside behavioral changes to explain outbreak features both at early stages (e.g., in estimating the basic reproduction number) and throughout an epidemic (e.g., in connecting shifts in the age of infection to periods of changing incidence).

Reasons for Receiving or Not Receiving Bivalent COVID-19 Booster Vaccinations Among Adults - United States, November 1-December 10, 2022.

Bivalent COVID-19 booster vaccines, developed to protect against both ancestral and Omicron BA.4/BA.5 variants, are recommended to increase protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease* (1,2). However, relatively few eligible U.S. adults have received a bivalent booster dose (3), and reasons for low coverage are unclear. An opt-in Internet survey of 1,200 COVID-19-vaccinated U.S. adults was conducted to assess reasons for receiving or not receiving a bivalent booster dose. Participants could select multiple reasons from a list of suggested reasons to report why they had or had not received a bivalent booster dose. The most common reasons cited for not receiving the bivalent booster dose were lack of awareness of eligibility for vaccination (23.2%) or of vaccine availability (19.3%), and perceived immunity against infection (18.9%). After viewing information about eligibility and availability, 67.8% of participants who had not received the bivalent booster dose indicated that they planned to do so; in a follow-up survey 1 month later, 28.6% of these participants reported having received the dose. Among those who had planned to receive the booster dose but had not yet done so, 82.6% still intended to do so. Participants who had still not received the booster dose most commonly reported being too busy to get vaccinated (35.6%). To help increase bivalent booster dose coverage, health care and public health professionals should use evidence-based strategies to convey information about booster vaccination recommendations and waning immunity (4), while also working to increase convenient access.

Optimal dormancy strategies in fluctuating environments given delays in phenotypic switching.

Organisms have evolved different mechanisms in response to periods of environmental stress, including dormancy - a reversible state of reduced metabolic activity. Transitions to and from dormancy can be random or induced by changes in environmental conditions. Prior theoretical work has shown that stochastic transitioning between active and dormant states at the individual level can maximize fitness at the population level. However, such theories of 'bet-hedging' strategies typically neglect certain physiological features of transitions to dormancy, including time lags to gain protective benefits. Here, we construct and analyze a dynamic model that couples stochastic changes in environmental state with the population dynamics of organisms that can initiate dormancy after an explicit time delay. Stochastic environments are simulated using a multi-state Markov chain through which the mean and variance of environmental residence time can be adjusted. In the absence of time lags (or in the limit of very short lags), we find that bet-hedging strategy transition probabilities scale inversely with the mean environmental residence times, consistent with prior theory. We also find that increasing delays in dormancy decreases optimal transitioning probabilities, an effect that can be influenced by the correlations of environmental noise. When environmental residence times - either good or bad - are uncorrelated, the maximum population level fitness is obtained given low levels of transitioning between active and dormant states. However when environmental residence times are correlated, optimal dormancy initiation and termination probabilities increase insofar as the mean environmental persistent time is longer than the delay to reach dormancy. We also find that bet hedging is no longer advantageous when delays to enter dormancy exceed the mean environmental residence times. Altogether, these results show how physiological limits to dormancy and environmental dynamics shape the evolutionary benefits and even viability of bet hedging strategies at population scales.